On the Fletcher Investor Podcast, we look at Fletcher’s performance, compare it to the broader stock market, and discuss what the signals may mean for investors.
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
0:00
|
7:29
A short trading week with choppy waters created a pullback in the Fletcher portfolio. Be not discouraged, as the year to date performance is still well above the S&P 500 Index. Was it an overreaction to news this week? Was it profit taking? Regardless, Kyle talks about risk, sticking with the system, and resting in what backtesting has shown from prior years.
■ ■ ■
Fletcher content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
Welcome to the Fletcher Friday Report. Today is Friday, July 3rd, 2026. Fletcher is an investment algorithm I created with simple monthly signals buy, hold, and sell. Today we'll look at Fletcher's performance and compare it to the SP 500. The market is on holiday today, so this report is based on yesterday's closing. So here we go. This week was a little shift from last week. Last week we had the positive performance reporting from Micron and forward looking looked really good. And then this week we get hit with some other news that seemed to drag the market down a little bit. I didn't see any the sky is falling type reporting. Even if I had, I'd ignore it. I tend to be the optimist in looking at these things. But we did have so much positive leading up to this midpoint in the year that it's bound that some people are going to get in there, take some gains, cash out a little bit. I just wonder what they're going to do going forward. Fletcher did send signals on Wednesday, being the first of the month. Unfortunately, the timing wasn't great with negative days following immediately. I have to remind myself this is a system. I stick with the system and not let my emotions take over. So one of the signals this week was a stock that Fletcher had as a signal back in 2020. And it was on the signal list for a little while, but it's been almost six years since we've seen this particular stock. I'm happy to see it on the signal and interested to see what it'll do going forward. So the market in general, I mentioned it's been a turbulent week. We saw South Korea's market experience some volatility. In fact, they had breakers or halts that kicked in. And I have to think that that somehow influences what happens here, but I'm just speculating. That's not my expertise. But it does remind me, just stick with the plan regardless of the news, and uh the market's going to do what it's going to do on any given day. Fletcher was affected Wednesday and Thursday by the pullback in the market. As a reminder, Fletcher is relatively concentrated. It's as many as six. Currently, it's four stocks. Some news outlets I watch indicate overreaction, and I'm okay with that assumption. I tend to agree with that. I think we do have pullbacks like this, and we'll see, I believe, forward movement in the coming days or even weeks. All that being said, let's go ahead and look at some numbers for the week. As I mentioned, Fletcher experienced a lot of impact from the pullback this week. Fletcher is down eight percent for the week, and same for the month. Now, noted that we did have a signal on the first of the month, so there was a rebalance that happens. So negative eight for the week and for the month to date, which is just a few days now. Year to date, our number is dropping a little bit, currently 150% for year to date. But all of these, when you compare it to the SP, the SP is sitting at 9% year to date. I'm happy to take 150 over 9% any day. I mentioned a little bit about the market pullback this week. Jobs report was part of the impact. It wasn't great. That's getting factored in. They also revised previous months numbers, and those revisions did not help. Part of the pullback seems to be people taking profits too. We've had such great gains the last six months. I understand that sentiment, but I kind of wonder what is that when do you get back in? So you cash out, when do you get back in? To me, that sounds like a timing strategy. That's a dilemma for me. I am not good with timing. Is anybody? I think the general sentiment is that timing doesn't work. That's the attitude I'm taking. And a quick note about timing Fletcher signals are all on the first of each month. And the back testing was strict about trades taking place at a particular time and it was consistent. But as an individual, when you receive Fletcher signals, you have the option of acting on those or executing those signals on your own timing. And I heard from one Fletcher investor this week who did some timing on the market and did okay, but that's purely up to the individual. And I think we all recognize as investors, we all bear our own consequences and risks. I hope you agree. This kind of leads me into other questions. What are the risks of using Fletcher? Well, to put it bluntly, you can lose money, but you can also gain money. So Fletcher concentrates positions and follows rules regardless of marketing conditions. So that could potentially lead to short-term losses. But back testing so far shows 31% of signals deliver a negative. That means almost one out of three is going to be a dud. And I mentioned that in a recent Friday report. But that's part of the risk. And in this case, the rewards are outpacing the risks, with two of the signals being positive and well outperforming the third. I also had a conversation this week about account size and how to justify the monthly subscription. My personal opinion is to really get an ROI on the subscription investment itself, one would need to invest about 10,000 or more. And as a reminder, you control your investment in your own account. You're not investing into a fund that's being managed by someone else. This is all self-directed. And the information that Fletcher provides is just that. It's information. So what you do with it is really up to you. I do know of one investor who started the year with a $200,000 commitment to Fletcher. So in their portfolio, they said, I'm going to take this part of my portfolio and I'm going to put it into the Fletcher signals. And their account is currently at or around $500,000 based on this on the earnings this week. So when you're doing your own ROI calculation about the cost to subscribe to the Fletcher signals, you'll factor in anticipated potential value of using the system and what that means to you. If you have any questions about the subscription or the cost to subscribe, just let me know. Happy to engage in a conversation. Well, that about does it for the week. Thank you for listening today. I hope you have a great 4th of July weekend. To learn more about the Fletcher algorithm, go to Fletcherinvestor.com. Have a great week, and let's connect again next Friday.