On the Fletcher Investor Podcast, we look at Fletcher’s performance, compare it to the broader stock market, and discuss what the signals may mean for investors.
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It seemed like a calmer week in the stock market but it was good to see green for Fletcher's monthly signals. Kyle shares performance data from the S&P 500 and Fletcher while touching on the challenges of volatility and discipline.
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Fletcher content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
I saw a lot of green in the market this week. How about you? Welcome to the Fletcher Friday report. Today is Friday, August 14th, 2026. Fletcher is a rules-based investing system I created. It delivers simple monthly buy, hold, sell signals to subscribers. As usual, we'll look at Fletcher compared to the SP today. So let's dive in. Before we get to specific numbers, let's talk about the market in general. I've mentioned in the past that I don't really follow the general market much. I do check in now and then, but this week the market didn't seem to have as much buzz as it did last week. Maybe we're in what some call the summer slump. It seems that August and September have historically been weaker months for trading, lower volumes, maybe people taking vacations. Who knows? There is a recurring phenomenon known as the September effect. And research has gone all the way back to the 20s, I believe, 1920s, that is, and looked at what the weakest month of the year was, and September got the prize. I'm not sure why that is, but it's not anything I'm banking on either way. Looking at different months and what might be strong and weak trading months, I had to think, well, how does Fletcher fit into this? So I had to do some number crunching. So what are Fletcher's highest performing months? Well, when we look at back testing to 2018 so far, November and May have been the highest performing months. What about the weakest? You know me, I'm always looking for ways to poke holes in Fletcher. March. Any surprises there? 2020 of March? How about that? You know what was going on then. How about the trade wars of 24, 25, the shutdown of 2020, like I mentioned? The other weakest months, October and December, which I find interesting because those saddle right up to the weakest months of November and May. As I mentioned, I saw a lot of green this week. I know I'm always harping on this, but time is our friend. Short time periods are not good gauges. That being said, and to add some perspective, I'm going to start doing a 12-month trailing number for us to look at. So we'll do that every week in addition to the weekly, monthly, and year to date. This week, we did see a lot of green for Fletcher, up almost 11%. The SP was basically flat, not even a half percent gain this week. For the month to date, Fletcher is up nearly 14%, and the SP is right around 2.5% for the month to date. Year to date, Fletcher is at 152%, and the SP is right around 14%. And as mentioned, looking at a 12-month running number, Fletcher is at 394. And the SP, I didn't pull an exact number. I knew it wouldn't be near 394, but it is in the 20s somewhere. Each week there seems to be some consistent conversations that come up. Maybe it's just my own bias that's directing that. But this week it seemed to be around FOMO, fear of missing out. And it kind of relates to what I've mentioned in the past about discipline and how I use Fletcher to help drive my discipline so that I'm not doing reactive trading and emotional trading. And fear does creep in for me now and then when prices are relaxing and the sentiment seems to be negative. But I'm getting better at letting Fletcher cool my heels and just relaxing in it. All that being said, there are a few things about Fletcher that do heighten my awareness about what is going on in the market, and it's the volatility. Fletcher is volatile, and the reason it is is because it's going where the growth is or where it thinks the growth is. And where there's growth, there is volatility. And again, this is further argument for doing longer-term investing. With this, I wanted to go ahead and just look at the worst single month signal that Fletcher has had using live data from 2026 and then back testing from then all the way to 2018. The worst signal was negative 40% in a month. So the best signal was 142%. Again, big spread shows volatility. Now, here's what it gets a little interesting to me. Both of those happened in 2026. So that's live data that has produced those numbers. I love data, like I've mentioned in the past, and I'm working on additional data to share with you. I don't want to get into too many specifics right now because I want to make sure that I can perform on what I'm hoping to deliver. So stay tuned for that in the future. Let's leave it at that for now. Thank you for listening today. August is proving to be exciting. I hope you agree. To learn more about Fletcher Signals, go to Fletcherinvestor.com. Have a great week and come back for more next Friday.
