On the Fletcher Investor Podcast, we look at Fletcher’s performance, compare it to the broader stock market, and discuss what the signals may mean for investors.
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Kyle shares some new backtesting insights effecting how we look at Fletcher from a risk perspective. Meanwhile, Fletcher shows a 163% gain for the year so far with live data.
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Fletcher content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
It's been a sobering week for Fletcher, not because of the market, but because of my relentless pursuit to shoot holes in it. Welcome to another Fletcher Friday report. Today is Friday, September 4th, 2026. In today's report, I'll talk about this week's signals, and we'll look at Fletcher's performance compared to the SP 500. I've got a lot to cover today, so let's get going. Yes, this week has been a good week for Fletcher as far as performance goes, but it's been a sobering week as well. And I thought I'd take a little bit of time to talk through some of that with you. I always said I'd be straightforward and honest, letting you walk with me through the good, the bad, and the ugly of Fletcher. This week got a little bit ugly, and I want to talk about that. In my pursuit to shoot holes in Fletcher, I found a hole. And it has to do with one of the many rules that Fletcher follows to create the signals. So with the mindset of shooting holes, I've been working through backtesting to challenge the back testing that I have so far. I'm using additional data sources. In doing so, running the numbers, and started to see a trend that was unusual. In doing some more digging, I found that part of the data that I had collected previously had an error, and that's what I've uncovered. The rules that Fletcher follows are stakes in the ground. They are non-optional conditions, they're data-driven, they're not emotional. But if a rule strays because of bad data, it starts to snowball. That's what I found to be the case in some of the data that I was using to back test and coming through everything with a fine-toothed comb. I would say that what I found was significant, and I'll have more to report in the future about how significant all of this is new in the last few days, so I'm having to take some time to really sort through and assess what's going on. I will say that basically the theme of what I've discovered is it affects the volatility in what I was showing as far as Fletcher's performance. How much volatility, that's to be determined. And I'll be working to get that defined and we'll be looking at that together. Now it's time to look at actual numbers for Fletcher and the SP this week. This week Fletcher sent new signals on September 1st. Even though we're only four days in, the signals brought positive results for us. So let's get a look. Before we look at the September numbers, I wanted to go ahead and put a bookend on August. August ended on Monday, and Fletcher performed at over 11% for the month. The SP was almost 2% for the month. Tuesday, September 1st, Fletcher sent signals. And since the first of the month, which would be basically four days of trading, Fletcher is up over 7%, and the SP is up around 1%. Year to date, with live data, the number for Fletcher is 163%. This again is live data, not back tested. We went live January, and so this is where I have a lot of confidence because my actual portfolio is experiencing this. 163%. The SP is up 13%. I'll be back with more numbers next week, and I'll continue to bring you along as I dig further into the back testing. The good news is, like I mentioned, live data for 2026 at 163. Very pleased with that. Beyond that, I'll be working to define volatility and risk and drawdown data for us all. Together, we'll see what Fletcher has to say about the past 10 years via backtesting. That puts another week in the books for Fletcher and our Friday report. Thank you for listening today. To learn more about Fletcher, go to Fletcherinvestor.com. Have a great week.
