On the Fletcher Investor Podcast, we look at Fletcher’s performance, compare it to the broader stock market, and discuss what the signals may mean for investors.
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Kyle brings you along as he continues to question Fletcher's viability by looking at risk measures—Beta and Sharpe. He expresses his optimism as live data (and his personal portfolio) continue to outperform the S&P 500 Index.
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Fletcher content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
It's another good week for Fletcher, and there's more backtesting data to wrestle with. Welcome to another Fletcher Friday report. Today is Friday, September 11, 2026. Every Friday we look at Fletcher's performance compared to the SP 500 index. It was a short trading week with Monday being Labor Day. Let's get started with this week's report. Last week I shared how I've been uncovering some new information with Fletcher and more in-depth backtesting. In Friday reports prior to last week, I had shared exceptional data about Fletcher, and I'm throwing all that out the window at the moment. Current back testing data is showing a little different picture, and I want to share that with you in real time as I gather it. There's still a lot of digging to do, and I'm just going to bring you along as I work through it. This week I continued further down the path, and I'm still gathering data and running rules. And I don't really know where this will all take us. I will share more information as I get it. As mentioned last week, preliminary indicators show Fletcher to have a higher risk quotient than originally calculated. Also, Fletcher's performance is lower than originally reported. So those are things that are meaningful, and I am working to get more definition for myself and for you as well. In my pursuit to understand the risk and performance of Fletcher, I've been looking for different ways to measure it. There are two things that I'm using currently that I've not used much in the past. One risk measurement I'm using to judge Fletcher is beta. And I've not used this a lot in the past personally, but with Fletcher, it's giving me more insights as to how it moves or doesn't move with the market. And Fletcher's beta is very low, but that's deceiving. It's really all over the place. It's kind of a wild on its own entity. It doesn't track with or contrary to the market. It just does whatever it wants. Another risk measure that I'm using is Sharp. It's actually named after a guy that invented it. And that's basically how bumpy or how much of a roller coaster is Fletcher and is it worth the ride? In other words, is there a payoff that makes it worth the drama? Currently, Fletcher's Sharp is low, and that's bad. That means there's a lot of bump, but not much payoff. So these are two risk measurements that I'm using currently, looking at Fletcher's back testing to understand it better and to be able to communicate with you. In general, Fletcher is about three times more volatile than the S P 500. I'm currently only using nine years of back test data. That's what I have. I'm currently building out additional years. So that'll give us more context going forward. Where I go from here with this information is looking at what rules are within Fletcher and what contribute to the overall volatility and what signals are producing poor returns. Let's move on from backtesting for a moment and look at live data. This is Fletcher's actual performance since January of this year. Backtesting results have been a real wet blanket here lately. And what I'm encouraged by, however, is the live data and the performance year to date. I'm still optimistic, but with caution and keeping the backtesting in mind. All that being said, let's look at the numbers. Fletcher came out this week on the positive, about 3% up from last Friday. The SP was down slightly, almost 1%. Fletcher since September 1st, which is when we had our last signal, is up over 11%, and the SP is basically flat. Year to date, Fletcher has had an amazing year, currently at 171%. As you can see, this is what keeps me optimistic about Fletcher, our year-to-date performance being at 171%. While back testing is revealing volatility and risk, I'm still trying to keep everything in context. So, with all of this, how do I sum up this week for me personally? Basically, I'm examining my portfolio overall. I currently have Fletcher plus four ETFs. I'm heavy in tech. I'm rebalancing and using conviction and letting Claude chime in a little bit with its opinion. Claude recently said to me, if the goal is diversification and I had to stop it there, my goal is not diversification. What is the goal? For me, it's high returns, a certain amount of stability. I'm okay to have large drawdowns as long as we're going to have an amazing recovery. And I'm in it for the long haul. So I'm not looking at short time frames. I'm also not ignoring risk. So I do have eggs spread across multiple baskets, but I also don't have them so spread out that it just becomes average results. I'm looking for above average. If you look at one of my ETFs, SMH, which is a semiconductor concentrated ETF, you'll see what I mean. I carry a larger position in that, and it's had some pretty big drawdowns, but the positive years are way outweighing any negatives. I realize a win is different for each of us, and win can sometimes be a moving target, even for myself. Today I have target allocations based on my long-term plan, and it is to hold. For Fletcher, a win will be getting additional info about the rules and working through which ones are working well, which ones need to be tweaked, which ones might need to be eliminated, and are there other rules we can add? For now, that's going to do it for this week's report. I hope to have more insights to share with you next week. Thank you for listening today. Have a great week.