On the Fletcher Investor Podcast, we look at Fletcher’s performance, compare it to the broader stock market, and discuss what the signals may mean for investors.
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
0:00
|
6:29
Is volatility bad? What about concentration? Kyle talks a little about how he plans for and mitigates the downside risk with his personal volatile concentrated approach.
■ ■ ■
Fletcher content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
Driving fast, seatbelt or no seatbelt? Welcome to another Fletcher Friday report. Today is Friday, October 2nd, 2026. Every Friday we look at Fletcher's performance compared to the SP 500 index. And what do I mean when I say driving fast? Let's see how many metaphors I can come up with today. October is already looking pretty promising. I didn't experience the historical September slump that we often talk about. We saw a lot of green, and I'm happy about that. We had signals yesterday for Fletcher, and 2026 has predominantly been tech driven, and mostly the semiconductors. October 1st, signals were a little different. There was pharma, biotech, and software, and it's a little unusual to be that diversified. I'd like to switch gears a little bit. I've mentioned Nancy Tangler in the past from Laffer Tangler. In an interview recently, she mentioned that this is a once in a generation opportunity. And she was talking about the market in general, obviously. What I like about Nancy is she's got a very calm demeanor and she just talks facts, no hype. Once in a generation opportunity is her opinion, and I kind of like to come along with that opinion as well. One of the things that she does do, though, is gives nice solid facts about other things that she's recommending. She was mentioning recently as well that a concentrated portfolio, that is a portfolio filled with familiar names leading the pack, can be challenging in the near term, but it generates excess total returns all the time. So that was her thinking about a concentrated portfolio. What struck me there is that's very similar to the way Fletcher was formed. Fletcher brings us a concentrated portfolio with three to six positions, and the concentration chose to outperform a more diversified pick. Now, this is using Fletcher's algorithm. And so we've been using the live data since January 1st, and that's proven such. We've had a nice run with the concentration that we have. And to Nancy's point, familiar names, I'd say partially, I would say mostly known names. Fletcher's actually introduced me myself to SNDK, Sandisc, and Sandisk has carried a big part of the returns for Fletcher this year. There have been other names that are familiar within the Fletcher of Signals, but at the same time, even here with the September 1st signals, there were two names that I'd never heard of. So that's one of the things that I do enjoy about Fletcher. It's looking at the data. It's not using my base of knowledge to do its picks. Let's go ahead and look at some numbers. This week, Fletcher was basically flat, just barely positive, and the SP was basically flat, just barely negative. Each one was within one percentage point. For September, Fletcher showed a 22% return, and the SP was showing about a 1% return. And year to date, Fletcher is sitting at 202%, and the SP is closing in on 13%. I did mention that Fletcher brings a concentrated portfolio with three to six positions at a time. Fletcher is a subscription to monthly signals, and new subscriptions are currently closed. Current subscribers continue to get their signals. And I always reiterate that Fletcher has a great deal of volatility, and with volatility can come risk. It feels like we've been going very fast lately, and this is where my comment about a seatbelt comes in. Maybe it's a helmet. If you're a motorcycle rider, I don't know. We could come up with a lot of other metaphors, I'm sure. But for me, I'm feeling the need to have a seatbelt that helps keep me safe because as fast as we're going, I don't know what the volatility is going to bring as Fletcher continues to bring signals each month. For my personal portfolio, Fletcher started at 30% of my holdings. It grew quickly to 54%, and I say quickly within this year. I am concerned about volatility. So I'm slowly bringing Fletcher back down to around 30%. That's me adding seatbelts, and that's the way I'm going to try to mitigate risk. Fletcher doesn't use AI, but I do, and I've been using it to help me rebalance my portfolio, look at blind spots, and I'm always curious what might be recommended that it's not even on my radar. I use Gemini a little bit. I've used Claude most of the time. My personal portfolio I have weighted into three sections. There's Fletcher. I have some tech ETFs. Some of them are very concentrated. I have a few ETFs that are more for balancing and hedging, and I combine that with cash as well. All this brings me back to the idea of risk and my personal tolerance. I'm trying to stay aggressive because I believe the opportunity is where the movement is. And I do have that underlying desire to significantly outperform the SP. Doing all the AI modeling helps me not get too far out, but also as a voice of reason. And it helps add some seatbelts or guardrails or helmet, whatever metaphor you want to use. While I am rebalancing, I am also trying to stay true to what has brought me to the party. And that's Fletcher, quite candidly. Fletcher's been a great shot to the arm for my portfolio. There's no perfect or right answer, and obviously there's not a one size fits all. Let me know what you're doing to navigate risk. I am curious to learn from others. Feel free to send me an email. Info at Fletcherinvestor.com. That'll do it for today. Thank you for listening. I'll be back next week with more updates from Fletcher. Let's see what October brings for us. I hope you have a great week.