On the Fletcher Investor Podcast, we look at Fletcher’s performance, compare it to the broader stock market, and discuss what the signals may mean for investors.
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How "Sharpe" is Fletcher? Kyle reveals some of the factors effecting Fletcher's Sharpe Ratio and works to answer the question of volatility.
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Fletcher content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
When considering risk, how sharp is Fletcher? Welcome to another Fletcher Friday report. Today is Friday, October 9th, 2026. Every Friday we look at Fletcher's performance compared to the SP 500 index. Is it winning or losing? Spoiler alert, it's winning. Let's look at by how much. We're only nine days into the October 1st signals, and so far Fletcher is showing positive. There are five positions, and it's been a mix of up and down this last few days. And the market feels a little unsettled to me. Oil prices in the news, a lot of talk about bonds, upcoming midterm elections. Just seems to be a lot of things influencing the buying and selling these days. If I didn't have Fletcher providing structure to my investing, I'd probably be making a lot of emotional decisions right now. And if I'm honest, probably is not the right word. I would be making emotional decisions. I'm thankful for the structure Fletcher provides, but I still have concerns about volatility and risk. I asked Google to help me with my understanding of volatility. And of course, it recommended the Sharp ratio that's sharp with an E. I'm relatively new to this concept, so I like looking at how Sharp is derived and what factors go into it. So I plugged in what Fletcher has done so far, year to date, and Fletcher's Sharp ratio number is 2.0. And of course I had to ask, is that good or bad? I don't know. So turns out it's very good. What I learned in looking at it closer is because it is such a short time frame, we've had live data since January, and that's what I plugged into Google. It really doesn't give enough time to give a real accurate number. But in a short amount of time, I'd say it's better to see a positive than a negative, right? January happened to be a big spike in what was calculated into the sharp ratio. January was a 66% gain for the month. So I pulled that out and I said, what would it look like if we did February up till today? And the Sharp ratio there was 1.78. And that's still very good. So I'm still asking Google, what does all this mean? How does that compare with the SP 500 index? And the index has been anywhere from 0.6 to 1.2. So from not good to good, depending on the time frame you're looking at. Of course, we have a lot more history with the SP. Google was looking at data from this year, three years, five years, 10 years. So that's why the broad range from 0.6 to 1.2. Over time, we'll get a better sense of what Fletcher's sharp ratio is as we look at larger time frames. And I'm looking at incorporating a lot more backtesting to look at sharp ratios. Unfortunately, back testing takes a lot of work, and so I've not had the time to commit to that. But as I do, I'll share it here. Let's look at some actual numbers now. For the week, Fletcher is up 9.5%, and the SP is up around 1%. Since the first of the month, obviously just a short amount of time, nine days. Fletcher is up 12%, and the SP is almost at 2%. And as I've noted before, where it gets interesting is year-to-date. Fletcher is sitting at 233% since January, and that's with live data. And the SP is about 14%. I'd like to spend a little bit more time on some of these numbers and put some things in context. As I mentioned, live data since January has produced 233% year to date. And what I like to look at sometimes, even though it's not wise, in my opinion, to look at small time frames, it does help me with kind of my gut level feelings on how Fletcher's doing. At the same time, it's also what I've been experiencing. If we look at the performance over the last six months, Fletcher has done 18%, kind of a stark contrast to 233%. What that's calculating is we had a very large drawdown in July of negative 26%. When you look at the past three months, we're sitting at 42%. So you can see in the last three months, Fletcher is making up some ground. This July drawdown of 26% got me thinking, what if I had invested July 1? And the answer is today we would be sitting at 5%. So take the very worst month, start your investment, and where are we today? We're at 5%. This also illustrates why I don't like looking at short periods of time. It's really over the long haul that we win. But all this does highlight the volatility that I continue to bring up. Basically, the question is is the ride worth all the drama? And so far, the answer is a big yes. But I continue to do the gut check. I like to run the numbers, and I am an emotional being, so it does factor in as well. How are you with volatility? What about risk? Let me know. I'm curious. And honestly, I could use some encouragement in that area. That'll do it for now. I hope I didn't pile on too many numbers for you today. Thank you for listening. Let's do this again next week.